All two-wheelers in India could be electric by 2027: Niti Aayog

The penetration of electric two-wheelers in India is moving at a pace never seen before. Despite concerning incidents, buyers are flocking to purchase electric two-wheelers. The Niti Aayog has come forward with a report that predicts the adoption of electric vehicles in the country.  The report has been launched in partnership with TIFAC and it is titled ‘Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India’. Also Read – Haryana government approves State Electric Vehicle (EV) Policy 2022: Incentives, subsidy and more

NITI Aayog and TIFAC made a tool to make these predictions. They came up with eight scenarios that have been developed for analyzing the future penetration of electric two-wheelers in the country. Also Read – BIS rolls out new performance standards for electric vehicles to reduce fire accidents

In the most optimistic scenario, the report forecasts 100% penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Indian market by FY 2026–27. In another scenario, which is technology driven and where current incentives are withdrawn by 2024, the report predicts 72% penetration by 2031. Also Read – Foxconn plans to manufacture electric vehicles in India: Report

During the launch of the report, NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said, “This report provides a much-needed tool to the industry, researchers, academicians, and policymakers to analyze and respond to various scenarios. It can be replicated easily in other segments too, such as four-wheelers, without any hassle.”

Here are the eight scenarios considered by the Niti Aayog and TIFAC:

  1. Challenged Diffusion
  2. Performance Driven
  3. Low Battery Cost
  4. Technology Driven
  5. Incentive Driven
  6. Battery Cost Challenged
  7. Same Performance
  8. Optimistic

The future scenarios have been constructed on the basis of three major factors that influence the market penetration of electric two-wheelers: (i) demand incentives (ii) cost of battery (iii) vehicle performance in terms of both range and power.

Four broad constraint levels have also been identified for the eight scenarios, in terms of installed vehicle manufacturing capacity and available charging infrastructure: (i) full constraint (where both vehicle production and charging infrastructure are constraints) (ii) production constraint (where only vehicle production is a constraint) (iii) charge constraint (where only the charging infrastructure is a constraint) (iv) no constraint.

In the ‘Technology Driven’ scenario, if an R&D programme manages to enhance the range and power of electric two-wheelers by 5% annually between FY 2023–24 and 2025–26, and by 10% in FY 2026–2027, then the penetration of electric-two wheelers may reach about 72% in FY 2031–32—even with no extension of demand incentives.

According to the predictions, the sale of electric two-wheelers may cross 220 lakh units in FY 2028–29 under the ‘Optimistic’, ‘Same Performance’ and ‘Battery Cost Challenged’ scenarios. It may reach 180 lakh units under the ‘Technology-Driven’ scenario. Under the ‘Incentive Drive’ scenario, the sale is expected to reach only 55 lakh units in FY 2031.

The report will also help gauge the requirements to build an electric two-wheeler ecosystem. It provides insights into the required infrastructure, manufacturing capability, policies, and technology-development priorities in the area.

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